Work
03Delivered

Predictive Analytics Platform

Time-series forecasting with confidence intervals and residual diagnostics, retrained on a schedule.

ArchitectureEngineeringML
forecast.platform.dev
12-Month Forecast — 95% interval
RMSE 2.3%
2.3%
Forecast RMSE
12mo
Horizon
Daily
Retrain
95%
Interval coverage
The problem

Planning ran on a single point forecast in a spreadsheet, with no sense of confidence and no way to catch when the model had drifted. By the time anyone noticed it was wrong, the quarter was already off plan.

The approach
01

Intervals over point estimates

Every forecast ships with a 95% interval. Planning decisions are made against the range, not a single number that was never going to be exactly right.

02

Production pipeline, not a notebook

The model retrains daily on a scheduled pipeline with validation gates. Residuals are monitored, and drift surfaces as an alert before it compounds into a bad plan.

03

Diagnostics in the open

RMSE, interval coverage, and residual plots are part of the product, not buried in a notebook. The people who rely on the forecast can see how much to trust it.

System architecture

One pipeline. One source of truth. Modules over a shared core.

Web AppMobilePartner APIsAPI GatewayIdentity / AuthCore ServicesAnalytics EngineWorkers / JobsPostgreSQLCacheObject Store
The outcome

Forecasts now come with a defensible confidence range and a system that flags its own drift. Planning shifted from arguing about a single number to reasoning about a range — and catching problems before they cost a quarter.

2.3%
Forecast RMSE
12mo
Horizon
Daily
Retrain
95%
Interval coverage

Have a system like this to build?

We take on a limited number of engagements to keep depth over breadth.

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